Grounded, or a dream? — every asset decomposed in the language of finance.

Price decomposition · four majors — how much of each price is a measured anchor vs the future expectations priced on top. An observation, not a verdict.
BTC Bitcoin BTC92%
measured anchor · future expectations: 8% of price
ETH Ethereum ETH0.05%
measured anchor · future expectations: 99.95% of price
SOL Solana SOL0.28%
measured anchor · future expectations: 99.72% of price
AVAX Avalanche AVAX0.01%
measured anchor · future expectations: 99.99% of price

BTC: most of the price sits above a production-cost floor — a capital asset. ETH / SOL / AVAX: almost the entire price is future expectation — growth assets. The same ruler, different shapes.

Macro environment — the backdrop, not a verdict
Today

The U.S. policy rate sits at 3.63%; the 10Y–2Y Treasury spread is +0.48 (an upward-sloping curve); gold is near $4,073/oz and crude oil near $80/bbl.

A snapshot of current macro conditions, shown as context for the assets below — not a forecast, not a recommendation.
public domain · US Treasury · NY Fed · US BLS · Federal Reserve H.6 · World Bank · cached
Macro → r → floor
4.70%10Y Treasury · risk-free+8.0%crypto risk premium=12.70%discount rate rsizes →E / rcash-flow floor→coveragefloor ÷ price

How the backdrop enters the model — as a discount rate, not a price driver. The 10-Year Treasury is the risk-free leg of r; r = 10Y + an 8% crypto risk premium = 12.70%. Lowering r enlarges the measured anchor and shrinks future expectations; raising r does the reverse. This is a mechanical identity within the model — not a claim that macro drives price, and not a basis that justifies expectations.

Today's notable — observations, not signals
  • 10Y–2Y Treasury spread at +0.48 — upward slope.
  • Gold near $4,073/oz; Bitcoin ÷ gold market cap ≈ 5.8%.
  • Bitcoin supply 95.6% issued of the 21M cap.
  • U.S. policy rate (EFFR) 3.63%.
  • Crude oil near $80/bbl (Brent/Dubai/WTI average).