Bitcoin
BTC ✓ VerifiedPrice
$58,413.10
24h
-2.92%
Mkt cap
$1,171.20B
Volume
$202.8M
We read this asset as:Monetary lensCurrency / store-of-value — outside the cash-flow accrual model; read via supply and issuance.
Today's backdroppolicy rate (EFFR) 3.63% · 10Y–2Y +0.28 (upward-sloping) · gold $4,587 · WTI $100shared macro environment — context, not a driver of this price
Bitcoin's measured anchor is its production-cost floor — roughly 110% of price, so spot trades about 10% below that floor. With no holder cash flow, the rest is read against gold parity and stock-to-flow, not growth.
Price decomposition — measured anchor vs the future expectations priced on top
110%measured anchor
price sits 10% below the production-cost floor
price sits 10% below the production-cost floor
Production-cost floor measuredFuture expectations residual▏price = 100%
Block
This asset
% of price
If it were a stock
Production-cost floor
approx · energy assumptions disclosed (25 J/TH · $0.05/kWh)
$64,473.53
110.38%
Exogenous, holder-attributable floor
Future expectations
read vs gold parity & stock-to-flow, not growth
$-6,060.43
-10.38%
Priced over the measured anchor
Production-cost sensitivity — the floor scales with the electricity assumption; an input, not a forecast
Production-cost floor: 110% of price
P = C (floor) + E/r (cash-flow value) + future expectations (Ohlson frame). r = 12.4% (10Y + crypto premium). Measured inputs are self-computed keyless; the residual is shown bare, never dressed as a measured block. Full method →
Price
$58,413.10
▼ -2.92% 24h
Market cap
$1,171.20B
Hashrate
967 EH/s
Network security — work behind the chain
Supply issued
95.5% of 21M
Annual issuance ≈ 164,362 BTC
In public treasuries
1.28M BTC
175 public companies · 6.10% of supply
4Overview
Bitcoin, read through the Monetary lens. No protocol revenue accrues to holders (mining fees go to miners), so cash-flow ratios are N/A. We show supply, the deterministic issuance schedule (block subsidy, 210k-block halving) and hashrate (security). NVT, MVRV and realized cap need our own UTXO node (outside our keyless infrastructure), so they are N/A — not estimated.
5Official links & addresses
garnish · public source · coingecko · 2026-06-26
Addresses not yet listed
Trust official addresses only — beware impersonator tokens
Share this asset
6Market · supply
garnish · public source · kraken + owned supply · —
Price
$58,413.10
24h change
-2.92%
24h volume
$202.8M
Market cap
$1,171.20B
FDV (fully diluted)
—
Circulating supply
20.1M
Total supply
21.0M
Max supply
21.0M
Circulating ratio (circ÷max)
95.5%
ATH
—
ATL
—
7On-chain · holders
Institutional treasuries
garnish · public source · coingecko · 2026-06-30
Total held
1.28M BTC
Total value
$74.85B
Share of market cap
6.10%
Companies
175
Largest holderStrategy MSTR.US·US · 847,363 BTC · 4.035% of supply
Holder list175
Strategy MSTR.US·US847,363 BTC 4.035% of supply
XXI XXI.US·US43,514 BTC 0.207% of supply
Metaplanet 3350.T·JP40,177 BTC 0.191% of supply
MARA Holdings MARA.US·US35,303 BTC 0.168% of supply
Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company CEPO.US·US30,021 BTC 0.143% of supply
Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd GLXY.US·US25,723 BTC 0.122% of supply
Bullish BLSH.US·US23,300 BTC 0.111% of supply
Strive ASST.US·US19,000 BTC 0.09% of supply
SpaceX ·US18,712 BTC 0.089% of supply
Coinbase Global COIN.US·US16,492 BTC 0.079% of supply
Riot Platforms RIOT.US·US15,680 BTC 0.075% of supply
Hut 8 Mining Corp HUT.US·US13,696 BTC 0.065% of supply
▦How the world reads this price · perspectives, not a verdict
The frameworks and narratives the world uses to argue about this price — each as an attributed claim placed beside its rebuttal, side by side. This is a map of perspectives, not our verdict; no forecast, no recommendation.
Macro narratives
Digital gold / store of valuenarrative
The claim (Saylor and many): Scarce, durable and non-sovereign — a digital analog to gold.
The other side: It has been far more volatile than gold; a 'store of value' that has fallen ~70% in a cycle is contested.
Inflation hedgemacro
The claim (long-horizon proponents): A fixed supply protects against currency debasement.
The other side: It fell in 2022 as CPI spiked — behaving as a risk asset, not a hedge, over that window.
Fiat-debasement / opt-outmacro
The claim (Austrian-leaning commentators): An exit from debasing fiat — the 'opt-out' asset.
The other side: There has been no fiat-collapse test in a major economy; critics call the reasoning circular.
Global liquidity (M2) co-movementmacro
The claim (macro analysts): Price tracks global money supply and dollar liquidity with a lag.
The other side: Correlation is not causation; it breaks in stress, and 'global M2' is a constructed series.
Risk-asset correlationmacro
The claim (macro analysts): Trades as a high-beta risk asset, correlated to equities and the Nasdaq.
The other side: The correlation regime-shifts — at times near zero or negative.
Real-rate inversemacro
The claim (macro analysts): Inversely related to real yields — a long-duration risk asset.
The other side: Not stable across regimes; many confounders.
Censorship-resistance premiumnarrative
The claim (cypherpunk lineage): Value from permissionless, censorship- and seizure-resistant property.
The other side: Unquantifiable; demonstrated in capital-control contexts but not a price model.
Cycle & mathematical theories
Cycle / technical patterns — not a valuation.
Four-year halving cyclecycle
The claim (cycle commentators): Price moves in ~4-year waves anchored to the halving.
The other side: Only ~3–4 samples; a pattern, not a mechanism; it may be weakening.
Diminishing returnscycle
The claim (cycle commentators): Each cycle's peak return is lower than the last.
The other side: Few samples; trend-fitting; no mechanism.
Power law (price ∝ tⁿ)cycle
The claim (Giovanni Santostasi): Log price versus log time is linear — a growth corridor.
The other side: Critics call it curve-fitting with no falsifiable mechanism; all such models eventually break.
Rainbow chartcycle
The claim (community chart): Log-regression colour bands map cycle zones.
The other side: Arbitrary, post-hoc bands; we strip the buy/sell labels and present only the position.
Wyckoff phasescycle
The claim (technical analysts): Price traces accumulation → markup → distribution.
The other side: Subjective pattern-matching; unfalsifiable in hindsight.
Adoption & flow
Institutional adoption (ETF + treasury)narrative
The claim (issuers, treasury firms): Spot ETFs and corporate treasuries structurally absorb supply.
The other side: Filings and holdings are fact (SEC EDGAR); that they 'drive' price is narrative — flows are volatile and reflexive.
Nation-state / strategic reservenarrative
The claim (El Salvador; US reserve debate): Sovereign adoption legitimizes and absorbs supply.
The other side: Politically reversible; tiny relative to market size.
Payments / Lightningnarrative
The claim (Lightning proponents): Medium-of-exchange adoption adds utility value.
The other side: On-chain payment use is modest; the store-of-value thesis competes with it.
Generational wealth transfernarrative
The claim (adoption surveys): Younger cohorts allocate to it over time, a secular demand source.
The other side: Speculative and slow; hard to quantify as a price input.
Structural / on-chain behavior
The realized-cap and coin-age metrics that quantify these need our own UTXO node — infrastructure we do not run — so they are N/A, not estimated and not 'coming soon'.
HODL Wavesnetwork behavior
The claim (Unchained / Glassnode lineage): Supply bucketed by coin age shows accumulation and distribution regimes.
The other side: Descriptive, not predictive.
Long- vs short-term holdersnetwork behavior
The claim (on-chain analysts): Long-term holders accumulate near bottoms and distribute near tops.
The other side: The 155-day threshold is a convention; the signal lags.
Supply shock / illiquid supplynetwork behavior
The claim (on-chain analysts): Coins moving to cold storage shrink the sellable float.
The other side: 'Illiquid' needs entity labeling, and the effect is reflexive.
Miner capitulation / accumulationcommodity behavior
The claim (Hash Ribbons / Puell lineage): Miner selling marks bottoms; accumulation signals confidence.
The other side: Miners are a shrinking share of total flow.
Whale vs retailnetwork behavior
The claim (on-chain commentators): Large holders lead and retail follows.
The other side: Whale labeling is heavy and unreliable — one entity can be many addresses.
Skeptic / counter-views
Presented with equal weight — attributed claims and their rebuttals.
Intrinsic value = 0none
The claim (many economists): No cash flow, coupon or claim — worth nothing fundamentally.
The other side: Holders respond that monetary goods like gold also lack cash flow yet hold value.
Tulip / bubblenarrative
The claim (critics): A speculative mania, like tulips or the dot-com era.
The other side: It has survived multiple 70–80% drawdowns and recovered to new highs — atypical of a pure mania.
Ponzi / greater-foolnarrative
The claim (critics): Returns depend on new buyers; there is no underlying yield.
The other side: There is no central operator or promised return, unlike a Ponzi's definition; it is an open protocol.
Energy / environmentalnarrative
The claim (critics): Proof-of-work wastes electricity and is ESG-disqualifying.
The other side: A rising renewable and stranded-energy mix and the 'security spend' framing are cited; the methodology is debated.
Too volatile to be moneymacro
The claim (critics): Volatility disqualifies it as a unit of account or medium of exchange.
The other side: Proponents reframe it as store-of-value-first; long-run volatility is trending down (contested).
Quantum-computing threatnone
The claim (some technologists): Future quantum computers could break the signatures and expose old coins.
The other side: A long horizon, with post-quantum migration paths discussed; not imminent (debated).
Regulatory riskmacro
The claim (critics): Bans or adverse classification could impair access.
The other side: It has survived multiple bans (e.g. China); ETF approvals have cut the other way.
Tether / stablecoin dependencenone
The claim (some commentators): Some raise the concern that crypto liquidity leans on Tether, and that a USDT failure could cascade.
The other side: Tether publishes attestations and the market has diversified; the systemic magnitude is contested.
Full data & breakdownon-chain · events · derivatives · peers · governance · risk — expand for the institutional detail
MMacro backdrop · site-wide context, not an attribute of this asset
Macro backdrop for BTC as a macro asset — rates, liquidity, and alternative assets. Keyless public-domain sources only (US Treasury · NY Fed · World Bank), cached and shown with source + date.
Fed Funds rate (EFFR)
3.63%
public · ny fed · 2026-06-29
2-Year Treasury
4.10%
public · us treasury · 2026-06-29
10-Year Treasury
4.38%
public · us treasury · 2026-06-29
Yield curve (10Y–2Y)
+0.28%
public · us treasury · 2026-06-29
Gold
$4,587/oz
public · world bank pink sheet · 2026-05-01
Crude oil (Brent/Dubai/WTI avg)
$100.4/bbl
public · world bank pink sheet · 2026-05-01
Not shown — no clean keyless source, never faked: M2 · Fed balance sheet · trade-weighted dollar (public domain, Fed DDP wiring pending) · CPI · PCE · unemployment · payrolls (BLS/BEA require an API key) · S&P 500 · Nasdaq · VIX · high-yield · ICE DXY (proprietary indices, no free commercial source).
EEvents & filings · observations, not signals
Primary-source filings (SEC EDGAR) and regulation (Federal Register) that mention this asset — listed as observations, not signals. We show that each existed at a date; we do not connect any of them to price.
2026-06-25Federal RegisterProposed Rule: Request for Comment on the Extension of Standard Futures Contracts to 24/7 Trading and on Perpetual Contracts Referencing Physically Delivered or Storable Energy Commodities (Commodity Futures Trading Commission)↗2026-06-22Federal RegisterNotice: Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of Proposed Rule Changes To Amend Certain Representations Relating to United States Copper Index Fund (Securities and Exchange Commission)↗2026-06-17Federal RegisterNotice: Self-Regulatory Organizations; Cboe Exchange, Inc.; Order Approving a Proposed Rule Change To Permit the Listing of A.M.-Settled Options on the S&P 500 Index That Expire on Any Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday (Other Than the Third Friday-of-the-Month or Days That Coincide With an End-of-Month Expiration) and Expire on the Last Trading Day of the Month (Securities and Exchange Commission)↗2026-06-17Federal RegisterNotice: Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Order Granting Approval of a Proposed Rule Change, as Modified by Amendment No. 2 Thereto, To List and Trade Shares of the T. Rowe Price Active Crypto ETF under NYSE Arca Rule 8.201-E (Generic) Commodity-Based Trust Shares (Securities and Exchange Commission)↗2026-06-16Federal RegisterNotice: Self-Regulatory Organizations; Cboe Exchange, Inc.; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a Proposed Rule Change to Amend Cboe Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index Options (“CBTX”) and Cboe Mini Bitcoin U.S. ETF Index Options (“MBTX”) Standard Transaction Fees (Securities and Exchange Commission)↗2026-06-16Federal RegisterNotice: Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing of Amendment No. 1 and Designation of a Longer Period for Commission Action on a Proposed Rule Change, as Modified by Amendment No. 1, To Amend Rule 5711(d) To Modify the Generic Listing Standards for Commodity-Based Trust Shares (Securities and Exchange Commission)↗2026-06-15Federal RegisterNotice: Self-Regulatory Organizations; MEMX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a Proposed Rule Change To Amend Rules 18.7 and 18.9 To Permit an Increase in Position and Exercise Limits for Options on IBIT (Securities and Exchange Commission)↗2026-06-11SEC filingNakamoto Inc. (NAKA, NAKAW) — 8-K↗2026-06-09Federal RegisterNotice: Self-Regulatory Organizations; MEMX LLC; Notice of Filing of a Proposed Rule Change To Amend Rules 19.3 and 19.4 To Establish Listing Criteria and Withdrawal Standards for Options on Commodity-Based Trusts That Hold Multiple Crypto Assets (Securities and Exchange Commission)↗2026-05-26SEC filingStrategy Inc (MSTR, STRC, STRD, STRF, STRK) — 8-K↗
public domain · SEC EDGAR · Federal Register · primary links
9Futures · derivatives
Derivatives data (open interest, funding) is N/A. Perpetual/futures feeds require a commercial market-data subscription we don't use, so we show N/A rather than an unverified number. Methodology →
10Protocol fundamentals
TVL and protocol fees (DeFi frames) don't apply to a monetary asset — usage and network-health metrics only.
Active addresses (24h)
490,860
Hashrate (security)
967.1 EH/s
12Governance · development
on-chain governance — not on Snapshot
16Our metrics over time
No trend metric for this lens yet.
On-chain owned coverage
Not yet computed from our own RPC. For cash-flow assets without our own fee data yet, the premium decomposition is shown as building — never a fake number.